Średniowieczny klimat, czyli wielka szansa dla Polski

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Zmiany aktywności Słońca wedle zmian występowania radiowęgla 14C

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Kazimierz III był królem takim sobie, z pewnością nie „wielkim”, w przeciwieństwie do jego ojca – Władysława I Wielkiego, zwanego skromnie „łokietkiem”. Niewątpliwy, wielki sukces Kazimierza III miał jednak dwóch ojców – tego rodzonego i… „klimat”.

O średniowiecznym optimum już wspomniałem przy okazji „ogarnięcia się” wikingów. Z kolei o „czarnej śmierci” z 1348, przy okazji polsko-chińskich paraleli. Rzplitą owa dżuma wtedy cudownie ominęła (oraz trzy miasta: Mediolan, Gandawę i… Louvain) dając nam sposobność do wykonania „cywilizacyjnego skoku”, ale zapomina się przy tym o jeszcze innych, nieco wcześniejszych wydarzeniach…

Na początku XIV wieku nastąpiło (patrz wyżej – tzw. Minimum Wolfa, 1280-1350) wyraźne ochłodzenie w Europie północnej, powodując szereg klęsk głodu:

Between 1310 and 1330, northern Europe saw some of the worst and most sustained periods of bad weather in the entire Middle Ages, characterized by severe winters and rainy and cold summers. The Great Famine may have been precipitated by a volcanic event, perhaps that of Mount Tarawera, New Zealand, which lasted about five years. …

Famines were familiar occurrences in Medieval Europe. For example, localised famines occurred in France during the fourteenth century in 1304, 1305, 1310, 1315–1317 (the Great Famine), 1330–34, 1349–51, 1358–60, 1371, 1374–75 and 1390. In England, the most prosperous kingdom affected by the Great Famine, there were famines such as in 1315–1317, 1321, 1351 and 1369. …

A recent study found that an especially massive tropical volcanic eruption in 1257, possibly of the now-extinct Mount Samalas near Mount Rinjani, both in Lombok, Indonesia, followed by three smaller eruptions in 1268, 1275, and 1284 did not allow the climate to recover. This may have caused the initial cooling, and the 1452–53 eruption of Kuwae in Vanuatu triggered a second pulse of cooling. …

W Alpach podczas MEL [= Małej Epoki Lodowcowej] lodowce osiągnęły maksima w trzech głównych etapach – w XIV w. (ok. 1350), XVII w. (1600–1660) i XIX w. (1820–1850 r.)”

Ominęły nas wtedy nie tylko wielkie epidemie i klęski głodu, ale i większe rewolty:

Notable rural revolts

The Peasant revolt in Flanders 1323–1328. Beginning as a series of scattered rural riots in late 1323, peasant insurrection escalated into a full-scale rebellion that dominated public affairs in Flanders for nearly five years.

The St. George’s Night Uprising of 1343-1345 in Estonia.

The Jacquerie was a peasant revolt that took place in northern France in 1356-1358, during the Hundred Years’ War.

The English Peasants’ Revolt of 1381 or Great Rising of 1381 is a major event in the history of England. It is the best documented and best known of all the revolts of this period.

The Irmandiño Revolts in Galicia in 1431 and 1467.

The Budai Nagy Antal Revolt broke out in Transylvania in 1437. The military tactics of the rebels were inspired by the Hussite Wars (for example, the use of battle wagons).

The Kent rebellion of 1450 led by Jack Cade.

The Rebellion of the Remences in Catalonia in 1462 and 1485.

The Cornish Rebellion of 1497 in Cornwall and London.

The Cruel Fat Thursday Revolt in Friuli in 1511.

The 1514 peasant’s war led by György Dózsa in the Kingdom of Hungary.

The Slovene peasant revolt of 1515 engulfed most of what is now Slovenia.

The Jelali revolts in the Ottoman Empire.

The Knights’ Revolt of 1522-1523 in Germany.

The German Peasants’ War of 1524-1526 in the Holy Roman Empire.

The Pilgrimage of Grace in 1536 in England.

The Dacke War of 1542 in Sweden.

The Wyatt’s rebellion of 1554 in England.

The Prayer Book Rebellion of 1549 in Cornwall and Devon.

Notable urban revolts
The Zealots, Thessalonica, Byzantine Empire, 1342-1350.
The revolt of Cola di Rienzi in central Italy in 1354.
The Revolt of the Ciompi in 1378 in Florence.
The Hammermen’s revolt in Rouen and Paris in 1382.
The uprising in Dalarna, Sweden in 1434, 1519 and 1524
The Revolt of the Germanies from 1519–1523 in Aragon.
The Revolt of the Comuneros from 1520–1521 in Castile.”

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Do tego wszystkiego doszła jeszcze później (pod koniec XV wieku) inflacja, windując w szczególności ceny zboża na niebotyczne poziomy… wprawdzie po czarnej śmierci populacja w Europie zachodniej drastycznie spadła, ale jednocześnie spadły także zasiewane areały, bardzo pracochłonne,  zamieniane na pastwiska.

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The population levels of Europe during the Middle Ages can be roughly categorized:

200–600 (Late Antiquity): population decline
600–1000 (Early Middle Ages): stable at a low level, with intermittent growth.
1000–1250 (High Middle Ages): population boom and expansion.
1250–1348 (Late Middle Ages): stable or intermittently rising at a high level, with fall in 1315–17 in England.
1348–1420 (Late Middle Ages): steep decline in England and France, growth in East Central Europe.
1420–1470 (Late Middle Ages): stable or intermittently falling to a low level in Western Europe, growth in East Central Europe.
1470–onward: slow expansion gaining momentum in the early 16th century.”

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